The Responsiveness of International Tourists on Uncertainty and Instability: The Case Study of Inbound Tourists to ThailandNantarat

Nantarat Tangvitoontham , Wanasin Sattayanuwat


The purpose of this study is to examine the impact of uncertainty and instability factors as well as to recognize the determinants of the international tourism flows to Thailand. The study investigated the hypothesis that international tourists negatively respond to natural disasters, epidemic diseases, political unrest, and terrorism. The study uses panel data set during period 2003 – 2015 with 7020 observations. The data include the inbound tourists from East Asia, South Asia, Middle East, ASEAN, Europe, America, and Oceania. The results reveal that most of the variables in the model are statistically significant. Epidemic disease event counts immediately decrease tourist arrivals, but the effects will not extend to the next season. The study additionally found that terrorism event counts will delay the travel decision of tourists in the future. Tourists perceive more risk from the terrorism factor than others, so the factors prolong the impacts longer than other factors. The uncertainty and instability variables impact the tourist behaviors differently in different regions. Tourists from ASEAN and East Asia are more sensitive than other regions. The results reveal that all uncertainty and instability factors decrease the inbound tourists from these areas and extend the impact longer than other regions. The very same factors seem not to influence the travel decision of the tourists from South Asia, America, and Oceania.


Uncertainty; instability; tourist demand

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