The Prediction of Students’ Track Appropriateness in School - Students’ Ethnicity as a Moderator of the Prediction’s Validity

Abstract

In Luxembourg and other European countries, school placement decisions made at the end of primary school determine the track a student will follow in secondary school. About one-third of the students in Luxembourg come from immigrant families. Research has shown that this demographical factor influences school placement decisions, as students with an immigration background are more likely to be oriented towards a lower track than are native students (e.g., [1]). It seems reasonable to assume that immigration background may also moderate the predictive validity of school placement decisions. In the present study, we examined whether students’ nationality moderates the predictive validity of school placement decisions in Luxembourg. We compared school placement decisions of three age-cohorts of students with the tracks they attended three to five years later. Subgroup analyses revealed that the predictive validity of school placement decisions was actually affected by nationality. Kappa coefficients, expressing the closeness of the relationship between placement decisions and the actual track, were higher for Luxembourgish students than for students of other nationalities. Additionally, multilevel regression analysis showed that Luxembourgish students were more likely to keep on the track than immigrant students.